Donald Trump came first in a national poll Tuesday, the Democrats tremble for their candidate, who seemed assured of victory there is still a week. Forecasters, however, continue to bet on Hillary Clinton . It would have a 88% chance of winning according to the New York Times , 74% according to the FiveThirtyEight website.
Surprising? Not that much. National polls are not useless, of course, but they do not reflect the peculiarities of the electoral system in the United States. This is not a French presidential! In fact, what will be decided on November 8 is for which both candidates will vote each of the 50 states. Their choice will then be relayed by their delegates to an "electoral college", in charge of designating the winner. The most populous states have more delegates, such as California (55), Texas (38) or Florida (29). The less populated, like Wyoming, have only three. In total, this College has 538 voters, the victory belongs to the one who will have at least 270 votes.
A handful of Swing States
As a result, the election is essentially played out in some undecided states, the Swing States. You do not have to waste time and money in states that you've got from either party, like California Democrats or Republican Texas. The battlefield for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is this handful of Swing States. And especially those who report the most votes in the Electoral College, especially Florida (29) and Ohio (18).
If Hillary Clinton is in a good position, it is on the one hand because there are more votes of States acquired to the Democrats than on the Republicans, and on the other hand because it would be in the lead in the majority Swing States, although the gap has narrowed in recent days. Certainly, Donald Trump now outpaces it in the voting intentions in Florida and Ohio, but the early vote seems to have been favorable to the Democrat …
The 500 votes of Bush
But the suspense remains whole. In 2000, George W. Bush was elected thanks to Florida, where he had 500 votes ahead of Al Gore … which had received more votes nationally!
Created: 02.11.2016, 18:11